HW #7

1) What would be your best guess as to the solution to the Fermi Paradox, and why?

The Fermi Paradox brings about the conflict of the naivety if thinking humankind is overtly special and the fact the we haven't found any other intelligent civilizations to disprove that idea.There are many possible theories that I believe all play a part in the solution to this paradox. I think it would be rather rash to say that any one reason was the answer. The universe has existed for nearly 14 billion years, leaving lots of time for civilizations to come and go before we would ever even begin to dream of their existence. We have no way of knowing if there have been other advanced civilizations in the past or if there are currently civilizations simply too far away to feasibly be able to even detect at this time. It's not entirely unreasonable to think about the possibility of an intelligent civilization that developed and died out. It's still unclear as to what the life span of a civilization is. There have been many eras on Earth where the global ecosystem was destroyed, the Great Dying of the Permian Era is just one example of that. Humans are consuming energy at an alarmingly increasing rate, which will bring about our extinction if we are unable to find sustainable solutions. Although there's no way to truly know, I think it's safe to assume that other civilizations would face similar threats. Some may be able to overcome them, but others could die out. Since we have never expanded to a galactic civilization, we don't really know what it takes to accomplish such a feat. It's possible that our estimations for how many civilizations with Von Neumann there should be are far too high. Currently, all we can do is speculate as to what the solution could be.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permian%E2%80%93Triassic_extinction_event

2) What would be your best estimate of the number of intelligent civilizations in the Galaxy and why? What about the entire Universe?

If I were to estimate the number of intelligent civilizations in the Galaxy I would utilize the Drake Equation, partly because that's the only method I know and partly because it seems logical to do so. While it isn't perfect, there are many factors we don't have exact numbers for yet, the basis of the equation is a reasonable concept. There are some variables however, that we do know, such as the rate of star formation, stars with planetary systems, and how many of those planets are within the habitable zone. For there to be an intelligent civilization though, there must first be life to start with. So we would start with plugging in all of the known variables and then fill in reasonable estimates for the unknown ones. We know that at the given rate rate of star formation and the fraction of good stars that have planetary systems is approximately 100 billion and 1 out of every 10 planets in those systems sit in the habitable zone. We are working towards eventually being able to determine which planets have the possible basis for life (as we know it) and how many there are. Currently, I would guess that out of the ~10 billion planets in habitable zones, 1 in 50 of them fulfill the requirements for life. That leaves 200 million planets as possible homes to other forms of life, but now we have to take into account how many living species develop intelligence. There have been several dominant species on Earth throughout the planet's history, only a few of which developed into what we would call intelligent species. I estimate that .1% of species develop into an intelligent species, but then that still leaves the question of how many intelligent species have the communication technology to receive and send signals for detection. While dolphins are generally accepted as an intelligent species, they do not have the advanced intelligence to develop galactic communication technology. So this number gets smaller still, and I would say that only .1% of intelligent species develop communications technology. That leaves a hypothetical 20,000 planets in our galaxy that could harbor civilizations advanced enough to seek communication with other civilizations. This estimation is for only one galaxy, the number is obviously much larger when you take into account the entire universe. As of October of this year, it is estimated that there are at least 1 to 2 trillion galaxies in the universe. For simplicity's sake I'll just multiply the estimated number of civilizations in our galaxy by the number of galaxies in the universe, giving us a possible 2x1016 advanced civilizations trying to communicate.

https://www.spacetelescope.org/news/heic1620/

3) If you were to design a message to the stars, what would you put in it and why?

If I were to send a message into space for other civilizations to pick up, it would be similar to what the Voyager spacecraft carried, and I would most definitely include music. Music is one of the best ways to convey feeling, culture, and beliefs when there is no common language. Specifically, I would include "Jupiter" from Gustav Holst's orchestral suite The Planets. It's a beautiful piece that includes many different styles, though I'm partially biased because my high school's alma mater uses part of it. I think it's important to include something conveying the core of humanity, such as music, but I would also include pictures of people from all over the world making facial expressions of the basic emotions like happiness, sadness, and anger. I would also include samples of dirt and plants and rocks to give other civilizations an idea of the composition of our planet and the structure of our life forms. The Pioneer missions included a plaque depicting human anatomy, the hyperfine transition of neutral hydrogen, and our solar system including the trajectory of Pioneer 10. I would definitely include the depiction of hydrogen and our solar system. In particular I think showing which way the spacecraft went in regards to our solar system is important because that would give any possible civilization an idea of where to send a return signal, assuming they are peaceful.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pioneer_10
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voyager_program